Amendment 3 would cut property taxes for people who own the home they live in. This site estimates how much you could save, how the change could affect city and county budgets, and how fast local property taxes have grown. It does not tell you how to vote.
Independent and nonpartisanEvery number sourcedEvery Florida county and city
It needs 60% to pass, and recent polls are split
60%
Amendment 3 changes the Florida Constitution, so it needs 60% of the vote to pass, not a simple majority. In recent polls, Yes ranges from 42% to 63%, and 15% to 24% of voters are still undecided. One poll shows it above 60%. Four show it below.
YesUndecidedNo60% needed to pass
Pollster
Yes
No
Undecided
Paid for by
Dates (2026)
Likely voters
A sample of recent polls, as of October 16, 2026.
About these polls
Results as reported by the Sun Sentinel, NBC 6 South Florida, The Capitolist, the News Service of Florida and Florida Politics. Polls with a published margin of error are accurate to within 3 to 4 points either way. How a poll describes the amendment matters: the 63% poll showed voters the full ballot wording, and the 42% poll described it in one line as eliminating non-school property taxes on homes people own and live in. How polls were chosen
What the ballot says
Amendment 3 · Proposed by the Florida Legislature
INCREASED HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION; LOWER CAP ON INCREASES IN NON-HOMESTEAD PROPERTY ASSESSMENTS
If you own the home you live in, more of its value would be free from city, county and other local taxes. School taxes would not change. Taxes on rentals, second homes and businesses could rise more slowly. Cities and counties would have to spend property tax money mainly on things like police, fire, roads and schools. It needs 60% of the vote to pass.
This amendment increases the homestead exemption, for all non-school taxes, to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and adjusts for inflation thereafter. It requires the Legislature to prescribe a uniform procedure for counties and municipalities, for their respective levies, to increase the homestead exemption up to full assessed value, and allows special districts, subject to referendum approval, to do the same. Persons who are not Florida residents on December 31, 2026, will receive the existing homestead exemption upon qualifying for a homestead exemption, with the increased homestead exemption beginning with the fifth year of exemption, to the extent permitted by the U.S. Constitution. This amendment reduces the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead properties from 10% to 5%. This amendment requires counties and municipalities to use property taxes solely for public safety, education and schools, infrastructure, natural resources, bond debt service, retirement benefits for employees, and operations and administration. Other expenditures may be approved by county officers or county or municipal governing bodies unless prohibited by general law, notwithstanding Article VII, Section 9(a) of the Florida Constitution, which allows counties and municipalities to levy property taxes for their respective purposes. This amendment takes effect January 1, 2027.
The for would rise to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, then grow with inflation.
School taxes
No change
Only the first $25,000 of value stays free from school taxes, as it is today.
Rentals, second homes, businesses
10% cap → 5% cap
Today the of property can rise up to 10% a year for non-school taxes. This lowers the limit to 5%.
How local taxes can be spent
New limits
Counties and cities would have to spend property taxes on public safety, schools, infrastructure, natural resources, debt, retirement costs, and operations. Other spending would need local approval and could be banned by state law.
Local option
Could go further
The Legislature would set a way for counties and cities to raise the exemption, up to a home's full value. Special districts could too, with voter approval.
Moving to Florida later
Five-year wait
People who were not residents by December 31, 2026 keep today's exemption until their fifth year. The ballot says this applies only as far as the U.S. Constitution allows, so it may be challenged in court.
Not changing
Save Our Homes
The yearly cap on your home's assessed value (), portability, and senior, veteran and disability exemptions stay the same.
Timing
Bills in late 2027
If it passes, it takes effect January 1, 2027. The first tax bills it affects arrive in November 2027.
Cost to local governments statewide
$11.8 billion a year
When fully phased in, per the state's Revenue Estimating Conference. $4.9 billion in the first year and $8.7 billion in the second.
How fast property taxes have grown
Long-run figures for the non-school property taxes the amendment would cut, compared with population, inflation and household income. Start with Florida as a whole, or type the name of any county or city.
About these figures: every property tax figure on this site is non-school property taxes, the taxes Amendment 3 would cut. School taxes don’t change under the amendment and are left out. The one exception is the tax bill calculator, which shows your school taxes on a separate line so the bill adds up.
Does a bigger population mean a bigger budget?
Not automatically, which is why the tiles above show two numbers. The total assumes a larger population needs no added spending. The per-resident number assumes the cost of local government services per person stays the same as the population grows.
Read more
Some costs rise as a place grows, but many don't. A city doesn't need a second city manager, finance department or city hall for every few thousand new residents, so the cost of services per person can fall as a place grows. Other costs, like a new fire station or a new road, come in steps. Research hasn't settled how much added spending growth requires.
So the site shows both. Total, after inflation assumes growth requires no added spending. Per resident, after inflation assumes the cost of services per person held steady. The real need falls somewhere in between, and the per-resident number is the most that population growth could explain.
Pick any county or city above to compare it with its county and with Florida as a whole. Most places start in 2000 and run through 2025.
If the trend continued
Non-school property taxes have grown faster than household income. This chart shows them as a share of the typical Florida household’s income, then carries both trends forward.
Florida: non-school property taxes per household, as a share of median household income
How this is calculated
Rising home values and tax rates
A property tax bill is taxable value times the tax rate. This section shows how fast values rose from 2013 to 2025 and what local governments did with their tax rates as values climbed.
Step 1 · How it works
How property taxes grow without a rate increase
Your tax is your home’s taxable value times the tax rate. When values rise and the rate stays the same, your city or county collects more every year, and each year’s increase builds on the last. At 6% a year, collections double in 12 years without any change in the rate. Holding taxes to what services cost depends on each government choosing to lower its tax rate, such as to the .
Read more
Same rate, more money. Each year every city and county must calculate a : the rate that would bring in the same tax money as last year from the same properties, leaving out new construction. Keeping last year’s rate when values rise means collecting more, so Florida law calls any rate above the rolled-back rate a tax increase, and it must be advertised.
Limits on value growth. The taxable value of a home you own and live in can rise no more than 3% a year, or the rate of inflation if that is lower. Other property, like rentals and businesses, is limited to 10% a year for city and county taxes. When a property sells, its value resets to market value.
Limits on rate increases. A city or county can set its rate above the rolled-back rate by a simple majority vote, up to a limit tied mostly to growth in Floridians’ income per person. Going higher takes a two-thirds vote, and higher still a unanimous vote or a referendum, up to 10 mills for each government.
Step 2 · Values
Step 3 · Tax rates
Brevard County limits revenue growth
Brevard, which collected the smallest share of any county, has an unusual county charter provision, passed in 2008, that limits growth in the county’s property tax revenue to the lesser of 3% or consumer price inflation.
Year by year, statewide
Tax year
Taxable value
Non-school taxes
Average rate change
Share collected
Change from the year before.
All 67 counties, ranked
County
Home values
Taxable value
Non-school taxes
Average rate, 2013 to 2025
Share collected
Ranked from the smallest share collected to the largest. All growth figures are 2013 to 2025.
How this is measured
Source. Florida Department of Revenue County Profiles (Property Tax Overview), 2013 to 2025, one page per county per year. The 2019 profiles contain errors, so 2019 comes from the Department’s Millage and Taxes Levied report and Data Book parcel counts instead. Net new construction comes from the Data Book’s new construction report. County figures add up to the statewide totals used elsewhere on this site.
Home values. The average just value of single-family homes, condominiums and mobile homes, which the state’s county profiles report together: the property appraiser’s estimate of market value as of January 1, which tends to run below sale prices.
Non-school taxes and average rate. All property taxes levied in the county except school taxes: county, city and special district taxes together. The average rate is those taxes divided by the county taxable value.
Share collected. This works like the , over the whole period. It looks only at property that already existed in 2013: new construction and other net additions to the tax roll since then are taken out, using the Department of Revenue’s net new construction figures. At the 2013 average rate, rising values on that property would have raised a certain amount of added tax. Share collected is the actual added tax from that property divided by that amount. 100% means the average rate did not change. Below 100% means rates came down. Above 100% means rates went up as well.
Limits. Voter-approved taxes count as rate increases. Figures are county-wide and do not show whether the county, a city or a special district made the choice. Hurricanes changed values and budgets in some counties, such as Bay County after Hurricane Michael in 2018.
Where the money went
Property taxes grew faster than population and inflation combined. This section looks at what local governments spent the money on, using U.S. Census Bureau surveys of every Florida county and city. School districts are left out, since Amendment 3 does not change school taxes.
Part 1 · Workforce
Police and fire jobs grew about as fast as population; other local government jobs grew more slowly
Local government jobs per 1,000 Florida residents
All other functionsPolice and fire
About this data
Full-time equivalent jobs in Florida's county, city and special district governments each March, from the Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. Left out: schools, hospitals, utilities, transit, airports and ports, which are paid for mostly by state school funding or user charges rather than local property taxes. Population: Florida estimates used elsewhere on this site. Sources and method
Part 2 · Spending
Spending growth went to operating costs, not construction or debt
About this data
Operating spending (Census "current operations") for each government that reported in both the 2002 and 2022 Census of Governments. For Florida governments, whose fiscal years end September 30, those surveys cover fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2021. Amounts are in fiscal 2021 dollars. Wages are March 2002 and March 2022 payroll times 12, from the Census employment survey for the same governments, adjusted for inflation in those months. "More workers" is the change in full-time equivalent jobs at the earlier pay; "Higher pay" is the change in pay per job. "Everything else" includes employee benefits such as pension contributions and health insurance, contracted services, insurance premiums, fuel, utilities and supplies. Left out on both sides: schools, hospitals, and electric and gas utilities. Sources and method
Construction spending per resident is down
Construction and equipment spending per Florida resident, all counties and all cities, in fiscal 2021 dollars. It peaked around 2006 and has stayed lower since, so fiscal 2021 was not a one-year dip.
Fiscal year
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
Counties
$314
$346
$245
$211
$228
Cities
$187
$205
$153
$159
$139
Some building for new growth now runs through special districts, such as community development districts, and impact fees rather than county and city budgets. Special district construction spending rose from about $121 to $147 per resident between fiscal 2001 and 2021. County spending picked up in fiscal 2023, to about $245 per resident, still about 22% below fiscal 2001.
Interest costs fell while operating costs rose
Interest on debt per Florida resident, all counties and all cities, in fiscal 2021 dollars.
Fiscal year
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
Counties
$143
$93
$88
$57
$43
Cities
$55
$51
$42
$29
$23
About 90% of the drop came from lower interest rates on new and refinanced debt, and the rest from carrying less debt. Average rates fell from about 6% to about 3.5%, and debt fell about 13% for counties and 4% for cities after inflation. Most local debt is fixed-rate, so the savings largely continue: county interest per resident was slightly lower in fiscal 2023 than in 2021.
Pensions: a cost that follows the past, not the payroll
Nationally, state and local government retirement costs per hour worked rose about 330% from 2004 to 2026, compared with about 96% in private industry. A government's yearly pension bill has two parts. One pays for benefits workers earn this year and moves with payroll. The other pays down benefits already promised that the plan does not have the money for. That part grows when past benefit increases, investment losses or assumptions that proved too high catch up, and it does not shrink when staffing does.
City contributions to its own pension plans
FY 2001
FY 2021
Change
In fiscal 2021 dollars, from the 2002 and 2022 Census surveys. Same plans in both years; state insurance premium tax money paid into police and fire plans is left out. In fiscal 2021, Jacksonville paid about $135 million into its police and fire plan, roughly 46 cents for every dollar of police and fire payroll. Many governments also pay into the Florida Retirement System, which is not included here.
Why pension costs seem to appear suddenly
Pension shortfalls build up over many years, but they reach the budget slowly and late, for three reasons.
The budget pays a yearly contribution, not the whole liability. Each year an actuary sets a required contribution: the cost of benefits earned that year, plus a payment on any shortfall, usually spread over about 30 years like a mortgage. A market loss, a benefit increase or a lower return assumption adds a new installment on top of the old ones.
The unfunded liability was not on the balance sheet until 2015. Actuaries calculated it and the financial report notes disclosed it, but governments only began reporting it as a liability after an accounting rule change that took effect in 2015.
The required contribution is only as accurate as its assumptions. If the assumed investment return is too high, the bill is understated. A government can pay 100% of the required amount every year and still fall behind.
Example: Jacksonville police and fire pension plan
1992: unfunded liability of $42 million, with an assumed return of 8.75% a year.
1998 to 2001: benefit increases, including a retirement option (DROP) that guaranteed 8.4% interest on balances, the full 80% pension after 30 years of service instead of 32, and the cost-of-living increase paid entirely by the city, locked in by a 30-year agreement.
2001 to 2012: investment returns averaged 5.76% a year against assumptions of 8.5% or more, with losses in 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2009. The city reported paying 100% of the required contribution each year.
2012: 39% funded, with an unfunded liability of $1.68 billion.
2013 to 2017: a city review commission report, a rejected settlement, a forensic investigation of the fund, a 2016 referendum approving a dedicated pension sales tax that begins after 2030, and closing the plan to new hires in 2017.
2013 to 2022: the liability rose another $660 million from changes in assumptions, mostly lowering the expected return, and $215 million from pay and other experience worse than assumed. Benefit changes netted to about zero. The plan was 43% funded in 2013 and 40% in 2023.
So the low fiscal 2001 contribution reflected assumptions that proved too high more than low costs, and much of the fiscal 2021 contribution pays for promises and expected returns from around 2000. Sources: Jacksonville TRUE Commission report on the Police and Fire Pension Fund (2013); City of Jacksonville Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal 2023, pension notes and 10-year schedules of changes in net pension liability.
Part 3 · Police, fire and jails
Would the reduction force cuts to police and fire?
Sheriffs, police chiefs and mayors have warned that Amendment 3 would force cuts to law enforcement and fire protection. This part is meant to help voters weigh those warnings with data: how county spending on police, fire and jails changed since 2001 compared with everything else counties pay for, and how the reduction compares.
Spending by function
Function
Fiscal 2001
Fiscal 2021
Change
Change, %
Operating spending per year, in fiscal 2021 dollars.
How this is measured
Source. U.S. Census Bureau Survey of Government Finances, fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2021, for the 57 counties with comparable data in both years (about 98% of county residents). Duval County, which is consolidated with Jacksonville, is not included.
What is counted. Operating spending, from all sources, on county services. Left out: schools, hospitals, utilities, sewer, solid waste, airports and seaports, which are funded mainly by their own charges. Police includes the sheriff. Fiscal 2001 is converted to fiscal 2021 dollars using consumer prices.
The reduction. The state’s estimate of the full reduction once in place, as a share of each county’s property taxes (Revenue Estimating Conference, July 2026), applied to the county’s fiscal 2021 property taxes so both sides of the comparison are from the same year. Spending has grown since 2021, so this understates how much room there is today.
Cities are not shown. Between the 2002 and 2022 surveys the Census Bureau changed how cities record citywide costs such as pensions, so a by-function comparison for cities is not reliable.
Limits. This shows how the reduction compares with spending outside public safety, not what any county will cut. Independent fire districts, which only provide fire service, also lose revenue and are not included here. For small counties, Census categories can shift from one survey to the next.
Estimate your savings
Use the on your , not what your home would sell for. If you have owned your home for years, the assessed value is often much lower.
Example: a long-time Florida homeowner
Maria has owned her home for 15 years. It would sell for about $400,000, but its assessed value is $220,000. At a non-school tax rate of 12.54 mills, she pays about $2,115 a year in non-school taxes today. Under Amendment 3 she would pay about $878 in 2027 and $0 in 2028. Her school taxes, about $1,227, would stay the same.
Estimated savings, 2027$0
Estimated savings, 2028$0
Your non-school taxes
Today
2027
2028
Savings by assessed value
20272028
Uses an estimated TRIM rate unless you enter your own. Assumes tax rates stay at 2025 levels and leaves out other exemptions you may have, such as senior or veteran exemptions. Real savings depend on future tax rates. Not tax advice. How the calculator works
How much local government revenue would be reduced
Whatever homeowners save comes out of the budgets of cities, counties and special districts. These are estimates from the state and the city, and the real amounts will depend on future values and tax rates.
A county cut can reach city budgets too
Many cities receive money that is paid for by county and special district property taxes, such as county payments for emergency medical service and shared library systems. If those governments cut payments to offset their own reductions, a city's reduction could be larger than its own estimate.
For example, based on its budget, Tarpon Springs gets about $4.5 million a year from sources like these, including county EMS payments to its fire department ($2.97 million) and the county library cooperative ($370,000).
One way to judge whether a government can absorb Amendment 3 without raising tax rates or fees is to compare the reduction with how much its property taxes grew beyond population and inflation since 2000. Inflation is measured two ways: standard inflation (the consumer price index), and government-cost inflation, which tracks the prices of what local governments buy, such as staff, benefits and construction. Government costs have risen faster, so the second measure gives governments more room.
Dashed line: property taxes after the full reduction. Where it sits left of a benchmark bar’s end, the reduction takes taxes below that benchmark.
Across Florida
All counties and cities. This box does not change with the county or city you pick.
How to read this, and its limits
The starting assumption: local governments provided adequate services around 2000. The benchmark is what property taxes would be today if they had grown only with population and inflation since then. It is a reference point, not a definition of the right budget.
Two inflation measures: standard inflation (the consumer price index), and government-cost inflation (the federal price index for state and local government spending), which rose faster because it reflects what governments pay for staff, benefits and construction. The second gives governments more room. Both are shown.
The reduction: the state Revenue Estimating Conference's estimate for each county and city (July 2026), as a share of property taxes in the same year. Each government's taxes are assumed to grow at the statewide forecast rate. The estimate assumes today's tax rates.
Some costs are fixed. Pension payments for past service and debt payments cannot simply be cut, so a government with large fixed costs has less room than this comparison suggests. See the pension note in "Where the money went."
Absorbing the reduction is a choice. A government can also raise its tax rate. Under Amendment 3, homes covered by the larger exemption would pay little of any increase; rentals, businesses and second homes would pay most of it.
Based on the data above. It changes with the county or city you pick in the growth section. Budget hearings are held each September, and commission meetings are open to the public.
Renters, landlords, businesses and newcomers
No direct savings. Only homes people own and live in get the bigger exemption.
Slower increases. The taxable value of rentals, second homes and businesses could rise no more than 5% a year, down from 10%.
A bigger share of any rate increase. If a city or county raises its to make up the reduction, homes covered by the new exemption pay little of it. Rentals and businesses pay most of it, and some of that can show up in rents.
The rest of this site uses statewide data for every Florida county and city. This page goes one level deeper for a single city, sorting every line of its main budget by how much room the city has to change it. The same review could be done for any city or county.
Tarpon Springs, Pinellas County · FY2027 proposed budget
Tarpon Springs
The city estimates Amendment 3 could cost it $3.3 million in the first year and $5.5 million in the second. Here is what its main budget pays for, and how much room it has to change in the short run.
Where a $5.5 million gap could come from
The is the part of the budget paid mostly by property taxes. The FY2027 proposal is $39.5 million. Every line was sorted into one of six groups.
Dashed line: the city's estimated second-year reduction ($5.5 million). Blue bars are the groups with the most room to change.
What these groups mean
The groups show whether the city has to provide a service, not whether it provides it at a fair cost. Pay levels, overtime and contract prices were not reviewed. A service in the "must provide" group can still cost more than it needs to.
The flexible share is about $7.0 million
Libraries, parks, recreation, arts and heritage, travel, promotion, memberships, training and equipment purchases add up to about $7.0 million. The $5.5 million second-year reduction is 79% of that. Closing the gap with cuts alone would also reach administration, roads, planning or public safety.
Smaller items people ask about
12 funded but empty General Fund jobs: $777,000
Events, holiday decorations and fireworks: about $266,000
Tourism marketing and advertising: about $190,000
Travel and conferences: about $110,000
Police ($12.7 million) and fire ($8.2 million) together cost more than the city's $16.0 million property tax collection
Besides cuts, the city could raise its tax rate. It is 5.37 today, and the legal limit is 10. Most of a rate increase would fall on rentals and businesses. It could also raise fees. None of these decisions has been made.
Every number on this site comes from a public source. This page lists those sources, explains how the growth figures are calculated, and lists every gap or adjustment in the data.
How the amendment works: Florida House staff analysis of CS/HJR 1F, and the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's Amendment 3 FAQ. flsenate.gov · pcpao.gov
Today's non-school homestead exemption ($51,411 for 2026): Property Appraisers' Association of Florida FAQ, published by the Manatee County Property Appraiser. manateepao.gov
How much local government revenue would be reduced
Statewide and Pinellas County estimates: Florida Revenue Estimating Conference, July 10, 2026. edr.state.fl.us
Tarpon Springs estimate ($3.3 million in FY2028, $5.5 million in FY2029): city finance director, June 2026 budget presentation. Citizen Portal summary
Tarpon Springs budget detail: City of Tarpon Springs, FY2027 Proposed Budget as of June 30, 2026. ctsfl.us
Property taxes, 2000 to 2026
County and city property taxes collected: annual financial reports that every Florida county and city files with the Department of Financial Services, published by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR). Revenue detail files for fiscal years 2001 to 2008, and revenue totals by county and by city for fiscal years 2006 to 2024. edr.state.fl.us
Property taxes levied, statewide and by county: Florida Department of Revenue, County Property Tax Overviews (2013 onward). floridarevenue.com
Home values, taxable values and non-school property taxes by county, 2013 to 2025: Florida Department of Revenue, County Profiles (Property Tax Overview), one edition per year. floridarevenue.com
County spending by function, fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2021: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Government Finances, individual unit files. census.gov
Brevard County revenue limit: Brevard County Charter, Section 2.9.3.1. brevardfl.gov
City property taxes levied, 2023 to 2025, and 2025-26 rolled-back and adopted tax rates: Florida Department of Revenue, Table 1, Comparison of Taxes Levied, County and Municipal Governments, one table per county (2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 editions). floridarevenue.com
Population
Florida population: EDR estimates. County population: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) estimates for 2000 to 2010, EDR financial report files for 2011 to 2024, and EDR estimates for 2025. bebr.ufl.edu · edr.state.fl.us
City population: U.S. Census Bureau intercensal estimates for 2000 to 2009, the state estimates in EDR's financial report files for 2010 to 2024, and BEBR's Florida Estimates of Population 2025. census.gov
Inflation and income
Inflation: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, yearly average. fred.stlouisfed.org
Florida median household income: U.S. Census Bureau, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). fred.stlouisfed.org
Tax rates used in the calculator
Estimated TRIM rates: Florida Department of Revenue, Table 1, Comparison of Taxes Levied, 2025-26 adopted millage for every county and city, and the 2025 County Profiles for countywide, independent district and school taxes. floridarevenue.com
Tarpon Springs 2025 rate used to check the estimate: Pinellas County Tax Collector. pinellastaxcollector.gov
Where the money went
Local government jobs and payroll, 2000 to 2025: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll, Florida local governments by function (table GS00EMP03). data.census.gov
Spending by government, 2002 and 2022: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Governments, finance individual unit files and directory. 2002 · 2022
Payroll by government, 2002 and 2022: U.S. Census Bureau historical county and city government employment databases (2002) and 2022 Census of Governments employment individual unit files. census.gov historical data · 2022
Jacksonville pension history: Jacksonville TRUE Commission, report on the Police and Fire Pension Fund (2013), and City of Jacksonville Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal 2023. jacksonville.gov · flauditor.gov
Estimated reduction for each county and city: Florida Revenue Estimating Conference, July 10, 2026, Addendum 1. edr.state.fl.us
Taxable value forecast: Florida Ad Valorem Estimating Conference, August 2026. edr.state.fl.us
Government-cost inflation: Bureau of Economic Analysis, implicit price deflator for state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment, via FRED. fred.stlouisfed.org
Spending, interest and debt by year, fiscal 2001 to 2023: U.S. Census Bureau, state and local government finance, Florida totals by type of government from the 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022 surveys, and the 2024 individual unit file for counties (64 of 66 counties). census.gov
Retirement costs per hour worked, 2004 and 2026: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation. March 2004 · June 2026
Pension contributions: U.S. Census Bureau historical employee-retirement systems database (2002) and 2022 Annual Survey of Public Pensions unit file. census.gov historical data · 2022
Polls
How growth is measured
Growth is shown two ways. Total, after inflation adjusts property taxes for inflation only. Per resident, after inflation also divides by population. Government costs do not have to rise in step with population: many are fixed, and others come in steps, like a new fire station. So the site does not treat either number as the right one. The first assumes new residents cost nothing extra; the second assumes each new resident costs as much as existing ones. The real need falls between them.
Take a government's property taxes for the first and last year.
Convert the earlier year into the later year's dollars using the price index, and compare. That is the total growth after inflation.
For the per-resident figure, divide each year's taxes by that year's population first, then do the same comparison.
Worked example: Tarpon Springs, 2000 to 2025
2000
2025
City property taxes
$4,216,995
$16,301,894
Population
21,190
25,676
City property taxes, in 2025 dollars
$7,888,242
$16,301,894
Per resident
$199
$635
Per resident, in 2025 dollars
$372
$635
Inflation was 87% (price index 172.2 to 322.1), so every 2000 dollar is multiplied by 1.87. Total after inflation: $16.3 million is 107% more than $7.9 million. Per resident after inflation: $635 is 71% more than $372.
Why property taxes, not total spending
Amendment 3 changes property taxes, so property taxes are the most direct measure.
Total spending also includes grants, water and electric utility charges, fees and borrowing, which the amendment does not directly touch.
From 2021, many county financial reports include money the county collects and passes on to other governments, which makes total figures jump for reasons that have nothing to do with county spending.
Tax years and fiscal years
Property taxes are set in the fall and paid over the following months. Taxes for tax year 2023 are collected in the government's fiscal year 2024. The charts use tax years, so a collection reported for fiscal year 2024 appears as 2023.
Household income
The charts compare against Florida median household income for every place, because yearly income figures are not published for most cities.
Gaps and adjustments
Public data has holes. Each place where an estimate or adjustment was used is listed here.
Florida, 2000 to 2011
These years use taxes collected, divided by 0.976 to convert collections into amounts levied. The 0.976 ratio comes from matching 2014 collections to 2013 levies reported by the Department of Revenue. For 2008 to 2011 the city share is estimated from total city tax collections and could be off by about 2%. These years are marked as estimates.
Florida, 2012 and 2019
Filled from the Department of Revenue’s Millage and Taxes Levied reports for 2012 and 2019. The state’s 2019 County Profiles contain errors for many counties, so they are not used for 2019. As a check, the same report for 2012 and 2020 matches the County Profiles exactly in every county.
Florida, 2026
An estimate. 2025 taxes grown with the 2026 statewide taxable value, at 2025 tax rates.
Counties from 2020
State financial reports from fiscal year 2021 on include taxes that some counties collect for other governments. County figures from tax year 2020 therefore use Department of Revenue levies, scaled to match each county's 2020 collections. Where both sources exist, they agree within 0.5% for the typical county and within 3.2% for 9 in 10 counties.
Cities, 2024 and 2025
The state financial reports for cities currently run through tax year 2023. For 2024 and 2025, each city's levy from the Department of Revenue's Comparison of Taxes Levied tables is scaled by that city's own ratio of 2023 collections to its 2023 levy. Tested on 2022, this method predicted 2023 collections within 0.25% for the typical city. Bunnell, Green Cove Springs and Keystone Heights end in 2023 because the two state tables disagree on their 2024 levy, and Brooksville ends in 2024 because its 2025 table could not be read.
Later start years
A few places start after 2000. Some incorporated later, such as Estero and Miami Gardens. Others have a first-year report that does not line up with the following years, such as Hardee and Bradford counties, Bartow and Cedar Key. Those places start with their first consistent year.
Single years removed
2003 for Palmetto, Otter Creek and Weeki Wachee, where the reported figure was at least 35% above both neighboring years.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville and Duval County share one consolidated government, which appears as a city. There is no separate Duval County line.
Not included
12 small towns that levy no property tax.
How "Where the money went" is calculated
Jobs: full-time equivalent jobs each March in county, city and special district governments, from the Census employment survey. Schools, hospitals, water, sewer, solid waste, electric, gas, transit, airports and ports are left out because they are paid for mostly by state school funding or user charges.
Spending, 2002 and 2022 surveys: both are Census of Governments years, when every government is surveyed. Census labels data by the survey year; for Florida governments, whose fiscal years end September 30, the 2002 and 2022 surveys cover fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2021. That was checked by matching Census property tax figures to state records. All amounts are converted to fiscal 2021 dollars using the average consumer price index for each fiscal year (October to September), and March payroll using the index for March. Only governments with finance data in both years and payroll data in both years are included: 57 of 66 counties, covering about 98% of county residents, and 58 larger cities, covering about 62% of city residents. The 2002 Census file has no imputed data, so governments that did not respond that year are left out rather than estimated.
Wages vs everything else: wages are March payroll times 12 for the same governments. The change is split into more workers (change in jobs at 2002 pay per job) and higher pay (change in pay per job). Everything else is operating spending minus wages.
Not shown by function: the Census groups some costs, such as central services and employee benefits, differently from how cities report them, so function lines like "administration" are not comparable between years or with city reports. For example, Census lists Tampa's fiscal 2021 financial administration at $282 million, while the city's own report shows far less for all general government. Totals by type of spending (operating, construction, interest) are used instead.
Pensions: employer contributions to plans each government runs itself, the same plans in both years, from the 2002 and 2022 Census surveys (fiscal 2001 and 2021 for most plans). The 2022 figure for Jacksonville's police and fire plan, $134.7 million, matches the city's audited report for fiscal 2021. Florida Retirement System contributions and state premium tax money for police and fire plans are not included.
Pandemic relief: fiscal 2021 included federal pandemic relief, mostly CARES Act money. Census does not split federal aid by program in 2022, so the site uses a strict test: it removes the entire increase in federal aid since fiscal 2001 (for counties in this comparison, $1.27 billion to $4.67 billion in fiscal 2021 dollars), which also removes ordinary growth in federal grants.
How "Can local governments absorb the reduction?" is calculated
Benchmark: a government's property taxes in its first year with data (2000 for most) times population growth times inflation to 2025. Growth above the benchmark is 2025 property taxes minus the benchmark, as a share of 2025 property taxes. Standard inflation: CPI-U. Government-cost inflation: the Bureau of Economic Analysis implicit price deflator for state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment.
Reduction: Revenue Estimating Conference, Addendum 1, "Impact By Government Type Within Each County." County figures include county-dependent districts. Year 2 is fiscal 2028-29; fully phased in is fiscal 2031-32. Each is divided by 2025 property taxes grown at the statewide non-school taxable value forecast from the Ad Valorem Estimating Conference (about 17% to the 2028 tax roll and 40% to the 2031 roll).
Statewide: all Florida non-school property taxes, 2000 and 2025, with the statewide reduction of $8.7 billion in year 2 and $11.8 billion fully phased in.
How the savings calculator works
Today: the non-school homestead exemption is $25,000 on the first $25,000 of assessed value, plus up to $26,411 more on assessed value between $50,000 and $76,411. That is $51,411 in total.
2027: the exemption becomes the smaller of your assessed value or $150,000.
2028: the smaller of your assessed value or $250,000.
Taxes: assessed value minus the exemption, times the tax rate. A mill is $1 per $1,000 of taxable value.
Estimated tax rates: the estimated TRIM rate for each city adds three layers of 2025-26 adopted rates: the county's countywide rate, the city's own rate, and an average for independent districts such as water management, hospital, children's services and transit districts. For unincorporated areas, the city rate is replaced by the county's rates for unincorporated areas, such as a municipal service or fire rescue taxing unit. Sources: Department of Revenue Table 1, Comparison of Taxes Levied, and the 2025 County Profiles.
How close the estimates are: the estimate cannot tell which neighborhood districts (lighting, fire control or community development districts) a home is in, and independent district rates are averaged across the county. For Tarpon Springs, the estimate is 12.81 mills; the actual 2025 rate is 12.5442. For an exact figure, enter the total of the non-school rates on your TRIM notice.
School taxes: shown for reference at the county's school rate (school taxes divided by school taxable value) on assessed value minus the $25,000 school exemption. Amendment 3 does not change them.
Left out: other exemptions such as senior or veteran exemptions, future changes in tax rates or values, and the inflation adjustment the amendment adds after 2028.
About the polls
The table is a sample of recent statewide polls of likely voters, taken from mid-September 2026 on. It is not a complete or up-to-the-minute list.
Polls from before mid-September are left out as too old to reflect where voters stand now.
Each pollster's name links to its own website. Who paid for each poll is listed so readers can weigh it themselves.
Spot a problem with the numbers?
If something looks wrong, unclear or out of date, let us know. Every correction is checked against the source and fixed on the site. Media inquiries are welcome too.